A few years ago, IPOs meant “listing gains.”
Investors would apply based on GMP and book profits on the first day.
However, at the beginning of 2026, the situation has changed.
Global geopolitical tensions, war, rising crude oil prices, foreign investor sell-offs, and market uncertainty are putting pressure on stock markets.
Even fundamentally strong companies in India are listing below their issue price.
So, the big questions today are:
👉 Is it wise to participate in IPOs in this environment?
👉 If an IPO lists below the issue price, what should investors do?
👉 Can we expect recovery once the war tensions ease?
Let’s explore the topic in detail.
What Are Recent IPOs Signaling?
Several IPOs in early 2026 have surprised investors with weak listings.
🔹 Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions
- Issue Price: ₹1,053
- Listing Price: Around ₹950–960
- Listing Discount: ~8–10%
This was a large IPO with strong fundamentals. Despite a solid position in the renewable energy sector, market sentiment suppressed the listing.
🔹 Shree Ram Twistex
- Issue Price: ₹104
- Listing Price: Around ₹68–70
- Listing Discount: ~30–35%
This example shows that weak market conditions can heavily impact both IPO valuation and demand.
🔹 Mobilise App Lab
- Issue Price: ₹80
- Listing Price: Around ₹64
- Loss: ~15%
From these examples, a clear pattern emerges:
✔️ Subscription can still be strong
✔️ GMP may remain positive
❗ Yet, listings can be weak
How Is the Listing Price Determined?
Many believe that if an IPO is good, its listing will automatically be good.
The reality is different.
Listing price depends on:
- Market trend (Nifty/Sensex direction)
- Global market conditions
- War or geopolitical developments
- Crude oil prices
- FIIs’ buying or selling
- Liquidity in the market
- IPO valuation
If the overall market is in risk-off mode, buying interest for new IPOs can be low.
The Reality of GMP
Grey Market Premium (GMP) often generates hype.
But remember:
✔️ GMP is just an unofficial demand indicator
✔️ It does not determine the final listing price
✔️ Market mood changes can render GMP irrelevant
In war-like situations, sentiment can change quickly.
Relying solely on GMP for decisions can be risky.
War’s Impact on IPOs and the Market
During war:
- Crude oil becomes expensive
- Import costs rise
- Inflation concerns increase
- RBI comes under policy pressure
- Foreign investors withdraw funds
All this affects overall liquidity and risk appetite.
In the short term, panic selling occurs.
But in the long term, markets usually stabilize — provided the situation doesn’t worsen.
What to Do If an IPO Lists Below the Issue Price?
Suppose an IPO was ₹100 and listed at ₹85.
Investors have three main options:
1️⃣ Exit on Listing Day
If you applied only for listing gains, you can exit to minimize losses.
However, the risk is missing potential recovery if the market stabilizes afterward.
2️⃣ Hold Strategy
If:
- The company is fundamentally strong
- Profitability is visible
- Debt is manageable
- The sector is growing
Then short-term volatility can be ignored, and holding may be the better strategy.
History shows that geopolitical shocks are often temporary.
3️⃣ Averaging Strategy
Averaging should only be done when:
- You fully trust the company’s business quality
- You have a long-term investment horizon
- You have risk-taking capacity
Do not average just because the price fell.
Is Recovery Possible After War?
Market psychology is interesting.
When fear is high, valuations become attractive.
If war intensity decreases, crude stabilizes, and FIIs start buying — the market can recover quickly.
In such a scenario, strong IPOs may deliver good returns.
However, timing is unpredictable. No one can accurately predict the recovery date.
The Right Strategy in the Current Scenario
🔹 Short-Term Traders
- Keep expectations for listing gains low
- Be aware of volatility
- Practice risk management
🔹 Long-Term Investors
- Choose IPOs with strong fundamentals
- Check valuations carefully
- Consider discounted listings as opportunities
🔹 Conservative Investors
- Wait for market stabilization
- Keep limited exposure
Key Takeaways from This Experience
✔️ A good IPO does not guarantee a good listing
✔️ GMP is not a guarantee
✔️ Market sentiment is the most powerful factor
✔️ War events increase short-term volatility
✔️ Fundamentals matter for long-term returns
Before investing in an IPO, ask yourself:
“Am I investing in the business or just seeking listing gains?”
Final Conclusion
The IPO market in 2026 teaches an important lesson:
- Even strong IPOs can list at a discount
- Market mood can be more influential than valuation
- War and global uncertainty affect short-term performance
- Long-term investors may find opportunities
So when investing in IPOs:
Do not rely on emotion.
Make decisions based on market trends + valuation + fundamentals.
